Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Third World War...

The Prospect of a Global Conflict - Third World War III if you want - looks somewhat unimaginable. Since the Second World War, there has been no major conflict between the great powers. The original postwar European project was based on peace, social justice and harmony. The disintegration of this project, coupled with rising nationalism, is likely to exacerbate the dangers of war on a continent with a story full of bloody conflicts, reports The Time. In the 20th century, the two world wars were unexpected. Christopher Clark's highly-valued book, "Somnambulans: 

How Europe Goes to War in 1914," published in a timely manner on the occasion of the centenary of World War One, describes an unexpected blow to Europe in the war. The First World War was preceded by a prelude to calm - the 19th century long, with relative peace and stability. The great powers of Eduardian Europe had been engaged in diplomacy and trade before the onslaught of carnage. 

During the 1930s, the main powers were inclined to avoid another war, and therefore followed a mitigation policy, hence the US initially hesitated to be involved, so came the Nazi-Soviet pact. Neville Chamberlain's announcement of "peace for our time" should be seen in this context. During the Cold War, the concept of a third world war was inextricably linked to the nuclear war and the doctrine of mutual destruction. However, it is possible that future conflict between great powers may take the form of another cold war, or even a conventional (ie non-nuclear) war. In the 21st century, there are three key fronts for future wars. The first is the Europe-Russia front with a new cold war caused by the Ukrainian conflict. The second is the Middle East front, centered around Isis and the Syrian war. The third is the front of Asia and the Pacific with a strong confrontation between the United States and China.

Cold War II The Time Magazine - the original US space-time spokesman during the Cold War - echoed the start of the Cold War II in 2014. Western powers have characterized Vladimir Putin's invasions in Georgia in 2008 and those in Ukraine as aggressive expansionism. Apparently, the irony of the fact that the US calls for not to violate national sovereignty, as it itself has plunged into Iraq, has saved many. Realistic perspectives - as articulated by John Mearsheimer on Foreign Affairs pages - is that the Ukrainian crisis was preceded by two decades of NATO expansionism to the borders of Russia. This was in contravention of the promises made to respect these borders at the end of the Cold War. Recently, the US has deployed troops to Poland in deploying US troops to Europe since the end of the Cold War. 

As reported, these US troops will also "stretch beyond other Eastern European states, including Estonia, Bulgaria, and Romania." Russia alarmed the Baltic states by "moving Iskander-M nuclear missiles to its naval base in Kaliningrad in the fall." The three aforementioned fronts are all three sufficiently dangerous to be considered as potential causes of another major conflict, involving large powers.

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